Sunday, August 7, 2011

Sectarian War or Sectarian Engineering?

The regime claims that this entirely sectarian based, though in the end it would appear that only the regime is acting in accordance with a sectarian based agenda.

It is well known that Europe and the USA are less likely to interfere in the case of Sectarian violence, a risk that didn't exist in western intervention with Egypt and Libya, which were essentially monolithic in the Sunni Islamic sect.  After centuries of their own sectarian strife, massacres and wars Europeans and Westerners are loath to become involved in an internal religious dispute.  The wages of sectarianism are what we see in Iraq, and saw previously in Lebanon leaves a pit in the stomach of western spectators.

To top it off since all of the regimes real allies are Shiite, it would appear that the government is willing to use its allies to perpetuate the sectarian image of this conflict.  They have sought the support of the Shiite run Iraqi government, thugs (I am sorry "revolutionary guard" troops) from Iran and Hezbollah's thugs.  It is in the best interests of the Syrian regime to transfer this into a sectarian conflict by shaping it into one intentionally.

One tactic used to do this is the nature of crackdowns and detentions.  When a large group of Sunnis is involved in a protest collective punishment is dolled out on their area, but small numbers of minority protestors, Christians and Druze only face individual punishment in order to inflame the sensibilities of only one ethnic group.  Christians as a whole and the heavily Christian Halab remain incredibly mum so far in this conflict.  The goal of the regime is to engineer the quiet for as long as possible so that they fill face later more open anger from Sunnis who are being harshly beat down, in the midst of apparent Alawi, Christian and Druze silence rooted in fear of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Sunni Hamas has remained neutral, and their affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood, who has until now been somewhat mum, makes it hard for them to take a side, as Iran and Syria are their bread and butter.  They claim their silence is due to "not wanting to interfere in another nations internal issues" but they don't seem to have a problem with Syria interfering in their own internal issues or those of its other neighbors... and their real reason for silence is to avoid risking their own gravy train.  They are affectively no more than yet another tentacle of Iranian imperialism in the Middle East.

Of course the sectarian nature of this is not lost to the gulf, for whom the specter of a future Iran run Shia based empire is of great concern.  Iran funds terrorists and dissension of Shia in every Gulf country trying to expand their influence over the Gulf and revive the old Persian empire under the guise of the Shiite revolution.  It is both fortunate and unfortunate that Gulf countries are starting to put aside their concern for continuing Arab springs with the ethnic repression Syrian and Iran are exerting on Syria's Sunni majority.  They may unwittingly contribute to Syria's conflict becoming more sectarian as well.  One must wonder if inclusion of Hezbollah and Iran bore this goal from the get go.

Of course apparent hypocrisy, is in part in that it is OK to crack down on Shia in gulf states, but not on Sunnis in Syria.  Then again the Sunni revolts in Syria are not part of some foreign perpetrator's desire for imperial expansion, despite what the regime claims, as they are in the gulf states.  That the crack down is by the same players creating their own dissension it makes sense.  The Syrian people are now the enemy of Iran, and Iran is the enemy of the gulf states.

The New Overture

Amid international pressure and to improve their imagine the Assad regime has taken upon itself to make further fake overtures to the protesters.  Certainly Arab league condemnation, EU, US and UN words have created a situation to take some heat off.

This is not the first offer.  After all... The emergency law has ended, can't you tell by watching the news?  It is no longer legal to make broad sweeping detentions and there is accountability within the government that wasn't before right?  I suppose the lack of change from the last overtures and the continues detention of tens of thousands and the death of over 2000 people up until this point, has left a sour taste in the mouth's of the Syrian people.

I think it is only fair to talk openly about what the regime is really offering.

1. Political Parties can now be formed, but may not have and ethnic basis, a religious basis, a particular trade represented and may not be tied to any international or other national party.

2. Free general elections by the end of the year.

There things are certainly attempts to quell something, but what?  I infer that it is first to quell international condemnation by making seemingly reasonable offers but let us talk about what is not said.

The regime targets four groups with these offers.
1. International players are meant to see the offer as reasonable, but since he continues his crack down it is likely to both have no effect.  So far the regimes calls that religious extremists are at the root of this revolt has fell on deaf ears, thank god.  Even the far right conservatives and the US and Europeans obsessed with the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt are concerned that the Americans and Europeans are not doing enough, so they can't rely on the hate of Muslims among the west to create callousness towards the protesters.

2. Domestic supporters of the president, most of whom are misled but innocent sheep in comfy government positions, may see the measures as reasonable and therefore view the lack of response of the protester actions as further proof of the degree to which protestors are unreasonable and justify the regime's fairy tale that foreign and Islamist influences are the sole reason for the country's revolt.  It is also meant to display this to minorities who still remain mostly silence due both the fear of the regime and of the potential of Muslim Brotherhood rule in Syria. When coupled with recent actions towards Christians in Iraq and Egypt these are not unreasonable concerns, and the regime feeds on this.

3. To the draftees who are carefully kept isolated from family and international news it is meant to be further proof the foreign and extremist roots of the protestors.  The goal is to dehumanize the protesters into extremist and Zionist and American stooges.  However, defections are still occurring on a limited scale and this will likely not be effective.  You can't replace by regurgitation to the soldiers, the 18-23 year old roots of family opinion and morals whispered in secret behind the backs of the regime.  Key to this is, however sending draftees to areas different to the areas the are familiar with and grew up in, and the culling of high ranking Sunnis in the security forces through fake "resistance" attacks, that are just a little bit to effective.

4. The final reason is to create division in the resistance.  Liberal Muslims and Christians who envision a secular liberal democracy are meant to separate from Islamists  and moderate Muslims who desire at the very least the flavor of Syria's Islamic culture be present in any new government.  It appears, however that this will have little effect on the resistance who would rather hash those problems out later on.

In the end the measures have no clothes.  The new law didn't alter the fact that the Ba'ath party is still to be the top party.  It doesn't change decades of lack of trust, as like in Egypt the protestors fear a premature acceptance of concessions will create a scenario where the can be rounded up in private at the regimes leisure.  Finally what party affiliation do they expect people to have?  With the current limitations there can be no Islamic parties (not a bad thing to secularists like me, except that the Alawi brotherhood party would still continue in force).  But there also can be no "Future Movement" as it would be considered a branch of a Lebanese party, no labor party because it could be consider a trade, no communist party, as that would also be linked to international organizations as well.  Perhaps they expect the Syrian people to start a "Misled Dogs of the regime party.

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Who Are Enemies Who are Friends

For many years the people of Syria have had a positive view towards Hezbollah, in great part due to their role in the eventual expulsion of around 15 years of Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon.

Yet one must ask who are the real enemies of the Syrian people today?

In Hama in 1982 tens of thousands were dead, city blocks flattened.  Not by Israelis, but by a sectarian headed regime trying to keep a strangle hold on the nation.  Then too, they blamed outside influences rather than a campaign of forced secularization that were a natural result of the regime's alliance with atheist Russia.

And today Russia continues their support of the regime amid the new crack down.

Now today we see it clearly once more: The Syrian people are being killed by Hezbollah, The Alawite rooted Mafia known as Shabiha, who terrorized Lebanon for decades, Iran, and the Syrian regime.

It would seem clear who the allies of the Syrian people are and who are their enemies. 

The people of Syria and the people of Iran have a common enemy: Mahmud Ahmedi Nejad, and his Revolutionary Guard.

The Syrian people have a common enemy with the people of Lebanon: Hezbollah, the political coercers of false elections in their mini state that has gained political control of Lebanon.

They have a common enemy in the political party of Imail Lehud, the Shabiha and the Syrian government.  Yet the Mustaqbal party, and Saed Al-Hariri are the real defenders of freedom in greater Sham against these enemies.

Turkey, however, appears to be the great hero of this massacre.  If only they would do more.

الشعب يريد أسقط النظام

It mean "The people want the collapse of the regime"

You can hear it chanted loudly from every video from across Syria.
Here is a good video or two

Libya

Syria
Shouting Freedom, Freedom, Freedom and God is the greatest
By blood, and soul we will give our lives, yeah martyrs

The people want the fall of the regime


Another Video with a good overview so far in English

يربحون

هم يربحون
هم يكسبون المعركة
دباباتهم صفت في الطريق
وجوههم تضحك
هم لا يكترثون
الكلمة الصادقة تبعث الرعب

المشي في الطريق للأغنياء و الجرذان فقط
و إنه للأشباح و الفساد أيضاً
وهم يلقون التحية على الجرذان
عندما يمرون بجانبهم

كل هذا قد حصل من قبل 
وسوف يحصل مرة اخرى
  النير حول اعناقهم ليست محكمة الربط
افكار اصحاب السرك
ربما يجب ان نطعمهم للاسود
امام جميع مشاهدينا الخائفين 
ربما سوف يتسلون 
ربما سوف يبقوا صامتين

Soon to be in Arabic

We will be translating comments into both Arabic and English in due time, please be patient.

Some Good Songs

On the Turning Away -Pink Floyd
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX_Fu6JW0fM

The Pretty Maids All in a Row -The Eagles
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRSUBH5JFf4

Sunday Bloody Sunday
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/u/u2/sunday+bloody+sunday_20141428.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM4vblG6BVQ&ob=av3e

Or in Syria... Bloody Sunday, Bloody Monday, Bloody Tuesday....